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The Czech Republic is a nation of car manufacturing. That’s why the mobility event was so important for us here at Startup Disrupt. Opening the conversation about the economic and social implications of a changing world of mobility is crucial, and we’re honored to have had some stellar guests who work in the arena discussing the topic.
So what are some mindblowing statistics, to give us a bit of market context?
The demand for shared mobility will rise by at least 30% in Europe – in Asia and the US even higher. See this video and find out how the assembly plant of the future will look like. Car managers need to be data managers in the near future. Today’s economies are dramatically changing, triggered by development in emerging markets, the accelerated rise of new technologies, sustainability policies, and changing consumer preferences around ownership. Digitization and new business models have revolutionized other industries, and automotive will be no exception. For the automotive sector, these forces are giving rise to four disruptive technology-driven trends: diverse mobility, autonomous driving, electrification, and connectivity. Most industry players and experts agree that these four technology-driven trends will reinforce and accelerate one another, and there is general consensus that the industry is ripe for disruption. Yet although the widespread sentiment that game-changing disruption is already on the horizon, there is still no integrated perspective on how the automotive industry will look in 10 to 15 years as a result of these trends. With this publication, we aim to make the imminent changes more tangible. We start from the general consensus that the industry is transforming and go further to specify and quantify the magnitude of change. The forecasts in this study should, thus, be interpreted as a projection of the more probable assumptions across all four trends, based on our current understanding.
Shifting markets and revenue pools – what are the key factors playing a role?
- Driven by shared mobility, connectivity services, and feature upgrades, new business models could expand automotive revenue pools by ~30 percent, adding up to ~USD 1.5 trillion.
- Despite a shift towards shared mobility, vehicle unit sales will continue to grow, but likely at a lower rate of ~2 percent.
- Consumer mobility behavior is changing, leading to up to one out of ten cars sold in 2030 potentially being a shared vehicle and the subsequent rise of a market for fit-for-purpose mobility solutions.
- City type will replace the country or region as the most relevant segmentation dimension that determines mobility behavior and, thus, the speed and scope of the automotive revolution. Diffusion of advanced technology.
- Once technological and regulatory issues have been resolved, up to 15 percent of new cars sold in 2030 could be fully autonomous.
- Electrified vehicles are becoming viable and competitive; however, the speed of their adoption will vary strongly at the local level. New competition and cooperation.
- Within a more complex and diversified mobility industry landscape, incumbent players will be forced to simultaneously compete on multiple fronts and cooperate with competitors.
- New market entrants are expected to initially target only specific, economically attractive segments and activities along the value chain before potentially exploring further fields.
The automotive revenue pool will significantly increase and diversify towards on-demand mobility services and data-driven services. This could create up to ~USD 1.5 trillion (or 30 percent more) in additional revenue potential in 2030, compared to ~USD 5.2 trillion from traditional car sales and aftermarket products/services (up from ~USD 3.5 trillion in 2015). Together, these revenues could accelerate annual automotive industry growth to 4.4 percent (up from about 3.6 percent from 2010 to 2015). Connectivity, and later autonomous technology, will increasingly allow the car to become a platform for drivers and passengers to use their transit time for personal activities, which could include the use of novel forms of media and services. The increasing speed of innovation, especially in software-based systems, will require cars to be upgradable. As shared mobility solutions (i.e., car sharing or e-hailing) with shorter lifecycles will become more common, consumers will be constantly aware of technological advances, which will further increase demand for upgradability in privately used cars as well.
We’re in for quite a ride, and both startups and traditional institutions are adapting to the change in the world of mobility.